New Year Celebration @ Burj Khalifa

Middle East Expatriates In Transition !!

First of all let me confine the scope of current discussion to Gulf Cooperative Council which comprises of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Recently Jordan and Morroco have shown interests in joining GCC. I think that in few years Libya and Egypt too will join the league and GCC will become a economic powerhouse to reckon with.

Infrastructure and Oil and Gas sectors have created enormous job opportunities in this region, bucking the recessionary trend. Tax free salaries, high rise buildings and massive cranes working day and night and the debt crisis are some of the first few things which comes to mind when we talk about Dubai and Middle East in general. Beyond the glossy buildings, massive oil rigs lies some not widely discussed softer issues unique to this region.

Religious freedom is the widely discussed of the issues. Dubai, the most liberalized of the GCC nations has allowed church and temple but in some of the countries practicing your own religion even in privacy of your home can be an offense. Though there may not be any official record of imparting punishment on account of practicing religion, but several stories, incidents are heard when people were deported or were held in prison  for few days

Some raw facts- Recently Qatar government has increased the salaries only of Qataris working in government run companies by 50%-100%. Even before this move it was widely known fact that for a given post, a citizen will be given a much higher salary (30% to 50% high) as compared to a non citizen across all GCC nations.What amuses and sometimes baffles me is a not so officially discussed fact that Western expatriates are paid more as compared to their South Asian counterparts for the same position ! I agree that a $1000 monthly saving will mean a lot to a South Asian in his country of origin and perhaps it wont be considered something significant for a Westerner but that does not justify the implicit racism. As a consequence some unwritten rules are being followed, such as in a certain area only so and so nationals are allowed to stay, live etc.

The expatriate population in Saudi Arabia is close to 30% (8.4 million), whereas in Qatar 1.45 million expats constitutes 89% of the population. Qatar's population has more than doubled post 2006 Asian Games and is expected to double again in the run up to 2022 FIFA World Cup. The population of Emiratis in UAE is close to 11%, i.e 0.9 million, with 8 million expats. The newly constructed residential and commercial buildings in Dubai or Doha can easily accommodate at least two times of the current total population or at least ten times of the current local population. Owing to enormous profits reaped by consistently high crude prices many projects are being announced and will be undertaken in the decade ahead. So all this implies that the region needs expats to execute those projects, to fill on those buildings and multiplexes, in short to keep the region alive, nothing significant. But interestingly none of the GCC countries offer nationality to any foreign nationals, unless specifically approved by some influential member of the royal family.

So, an expat in Middle East will remain expat for ever ! I really dont know how monarchies of all these GCC nations plan to fill in these buildings, malls, restaurants, airports and seaports. On one hand all the Monarchies of GCC have started emphasizing on democracy so as to avoid any anarchy, on the other Socialism is being bred under the shadow of Capitalism, in the name of protectionism. But not everybody who stands to benefit or loose because of protectionism policies can comprehend the subtle difference between racism, socialism and national interest. On one hand GCC nations wants to liberalize, attract talented expatriates from all over the world, following difference religions including atheists and agnostics, on the other they do not seems to be in any hurry to give complete religious or political or even social freedom to them.

Though many cases of human rights violation have been reported in this part of the world, corrective measures were and are being taken from time to time. Although employer's permission is required to leave Qatar or Kuwait or No Objection Certificate is required to change employers within a country, but any reported labor law violations are treated very seriously here and strict actions are taken against employers. So on a piece of paper human rights, labor rights etc seems to be taken well care of.

Comparatively young, small, oil rich GCC nations have been importing thinkers, philosophers, planners and technicians from all over the world to shape their present and future. Can they live without them in near future? Is it possible to artificially implant technical skills within 2-3 years in the local work force of an entire nation? No doubt the money Asian expatriates makes in GCC as compared to their native country is good. General sense of safety and security and labor laws too are practiced religiously here. While a country is most obliged to fulfill the aspirations of its citizens as first priority, but can they simply choose to ignore the expatriates on softer issues such as culture, religion, freedom and politics. Unless the local government addresses these non tangible, human aspects of life, the Expatriates in Middle East will remain in transition.

From Wall Street to Ballot Box in Middle East AND Back !

The innocent looking, mathematics and business wizards, who were slogged in for 12 hours a day 5 days a week and partied for 24 hours on the weekends, who stood on their feet high, self made, a bit greedy at times for all the right reasons mostly never would have imagined how their shorting of all the traded asset classes, will affect the life of people sitting 5000 miles away in the middle of a desert.

At macro level when I think I am surprised to discover that by first half of 20th century imperialistic powers were thrown out and democracy was established in several third world countries, but many second world countries were and are still controlled by their own home grown imperialistic regimes who have allowed a selective or should I say restrictive freedom !

Interestingly the recent upsurges which swindled the thrones of hitherto venerated and often celebrated flamboyant, reasonably autocratic rulers such as Qaddafi, Mubarak and Ben Ali, have not impacted the GCC countries, despite their close political, cultural and religious ties. Instead the GCC countries have maintained the precious golden silence about all these surges, movements and have neither supported nor opposed any of the sides vehemently. Even more interestingly elections at various levels were organized within 3-4 months across these GCC countries.

The power in GCC countries is concentrated with very very few members of the royal family and almost anybody who has spent reasonable time in GCC knows this. The Kings and the Queens of these countries have used all their power and money to wield even more power and earn more money for themselves and for their people. All the royal families of GCC nations are popular amongst local nationals, are western educated and reasonably liberal too. So despite their old friendship with the likes of Gaddafi, they were wise enough to judge the changing times. Before their peace loving national could find spare time from shopping in the newly built swanky malls and artificially created islands, elections were declared, candidates were nominated, electoral lists were prepared and elections were organized peacefully and efficiently. While people were busy watching Al Jazeera and CNN to find the truth of what actually happened in Middle East, showcase reforms were conducted in a sweeping manner at the speed of light in this mighty oil rich part of Middle East now called as GCC. The local media and newspapers went all Gung-ho about these lip-service elections, but despite all the attempts to create buzz, voter turn out remained low (20%-40%). The voter list was prepared a bit arbitrarily though and not all the members of the family were allowed to vote. To impress the west and the rest, some women candidates were made to contest elections, but not many women were allowed to vote. The low voter turnout indicates the interest, perhaps necessity and efficacy of such elections.

In the increasingly connected world, the information is already being democratized at a much rapid rate and the consequences have been beyond what anybody could have ever imagined. The otherwise orderly GCC nations witnessed for the first time the chaos which was accompanied by movements/uprisings/struggle for freedom and democracy. At present the GCC nationals does not seems to be too much bothered about the idea of democracy. The generous government spending will ensure a high disposable income in the smaller of the GCC nations. However the not so oil rich and not so small nations are already facing the heat of dissent and public anger. The seemingly never ending supply of the Black Gold and its near all time high prices will ensure a constant source of revenue and hence prosperity for these nations. But for how long and how far, is the question which nobody wants to face right now. When all the developed socio-economic-cultural powerhouses of the world are busy in saving their today, these GCC nations can very easily afford to forget the distant future, which is very very difficult to predict in any case.

Tunisia and microscopically speaking the recession which was born and bred in the Wall Streets of the first world has catalyzed the process of democratic transformation in the second world but surprisingly most of the third world seems to be reasonably insulated. GCC nations have white washed their countries, the other Middle Eastern nations are celebrating their success, are busy pondering about their respective futures. Because of the autocratic regimes which lasted for decades, a political and leadership vacuum got created without anybody noticing it. So the new generation revolutionaries who knows how to Tweet on Facebook and fire AK 47 are digging mud to bury their past and fill up the vacuum.

The bizarre world we live in is getting more wired and weird every day. We are back to where we started this post, Full Circle as they call it. The snapshots are the same but the faces on both sides of the table are bit different this time. The flashy, egocentric, tyrants are being replaced by the suave, educated, liberal, capitalists, who are interested only in minding their own business. Infact they too would have never imagined, that such a day would come within their lifetime. As of now, they seems to be committing the same mistake which their counterparts from the Middle East committed, denial! Before they will realize things can become more ugly and violent.Will it end the same way?

 .Chaos the only Order.