Middle East Expatriates In Transition !!

First of all let me confine the scope of current discussion to Gulf Cooperative Council which comprises of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Recently Jordan and Morroco have shown interests in joining GCC. I think that in few years Libya and Egypt too will join the league and GCC will become a economic powerhouse to reckon with.

Infrastructure and Oil and Gas sectors have created enormous job opportunities in this region, bucking the recessionary trend. Tax free salaries, high rise buildings and massive cranes working day and night and the debt crisis are some of the first few things which comes to mind when we talk about Dubai and Middle East in general. Beyond the glossy buildings, massive oil rigs lies some not widely discussed softer issues unique to this region.

Religious freedom is the widely discussed of the issues. Dubai, the most liberalized of the GCC nations has allowed church and temple but in some of the countries practicing your own religion even in privacy of your home can be an offense. Though there may not be any official record of imparting punishment on account of practicing religion, but several stories, incidents are heard when people were deported or were held in prison  for few days

Some raw facts- Recently Qatar government has increased the salaries only of Qataris working in government run companies by 50%-100%. Even before this move it was widely known fact that for a given post, a citizen will be given a much higher salary (30% to 50% high) as compared to a non citizen across all GCC nations.What amuses and sometimes baffles me is a not so officially discussed fact that Western expatriates are paid more as compared to their South Asian counterparts for the same position ! I agree that a $1000 monthly saving will mean a lot to a South Asian in his country of origin and perhaps it wont be considered something significant for a Westerner but that does not justify the implicit racism. As a consequence some unwritten rules are being followed, such as in a certain area only so and so nationals are allowed to stay, live etc.

The expatriate population in Saudi Arabia is close to 30% (8.4 million), whereas in Qatar 1.45 million expats constitutes 89% of the population. Qatar's population has more than doubled post 2006 Asian Games and is expected to double again in the run up to 2022 FIFA World Cup. The population of Emiratis in UAE is close to 11%, i.e 0.9 million, with 8 million expats. The newly constructed residential and commercial buildings in Dubai or Doha can easily accommodate at least two times of the current total population or at least ten times of the current local population. Owing to enormous profits reaped by consistently high crude prices many projects are being announced and will be undertaken in the decade ahead. So all this implies that the region needs expats to execute those projects, to fill on those buildings and multiplexes, in short to keep the region alive, nothing significant. But interestingly none of the GCC countries offer nationality to any foreign nationals, unless specifically approved by some influential member of the royal family.

So, an expat in Middle East will remain expat for ever ! I really dont know how monarchies of all these GCC nations plan to fill in these buildings, malls, restaurants, airports and seaports. On one hand all the Monarchies of GCC have started emphasizing on democracy so as to avoid any anarchy, on the other Socialism is being bred under the shadow of Capitalism, in the name of protectionism. But not everybody who stands to benefit or loose because of protectionism policies can comprehend the subtle difference between racism, socialism and national interest. On one hand GCC nations wants to liberalize, attract talented expatriates from all over the world, following difference religions including atheists and agnostics, on the other they do not seems to be in any hurry to give complete religious or political or even social freedom to them.

Though many cases of human rights violation have been reported in this part of the world, corrective measures were and are being taken from time to time. Although employer's permission is required to leave Qatar or Kuwait or No Objection Certificate is required to change employers within a country, but any reported labor law violations are treated very seriously here and strict actions are taken against employers. So on a piece of paper human rights, labor rights etc seems to be taken well care of.

Comparatively young, small, oil rich GCC nations have been importing thinkers, philosophers, planners and technicians from all over the world to shape their present and future. Can they live without them in near future? Is it possible to artificially implant technical skills within 2-3 years in the local work force of an entire nation? No doubt the money Asian expatriates makes in GCC as compared to their native country is good. General sense of safety and security and labor laws too are practiced religiously here. While a country is most obliged to fulfill the aspirations of its citizens as first priority, but can they simply choose to ignore the expatriates on softer issues such as culture, religion, freedom and politics. Unless the local government addresses these non tangible, human aspects of life, the Expatriates in Middle East will remain in transition.

From Wall Street to Ballot Box in Middle East AND Back !

The innocent looking, mathematics and business wizards, who were slogged in for 12 hours a day 5 days a week and partied for 24 hours on the weekends, who stood on their feet high, self made, a bit greedy at times for all the right reasons mostly never would have imagined how their shorting of all the traded asset classes, will affect the life of people sitting 5000 miles away in the middle of a desert.

At macro level when I think I am surprised to discover that by first half of 20th century imperialistic powers were thrown out and democracy was established in several third world countries, but many second world countries were and are still controlled by their own home grown imperialistic regimes who have allowed a selective or should I say restrictive freedom !

Interestingly the recent upsurges which swindled the thrones of hitherto venerated and often celebrated flamboyant, reasonably autocratic rulers such as Qaddafi, Mubarak and Ben Ali, have not impacted the GCC countries, despite their close political, cultural and religious ties. Instead the GCC countries have maintained the precious golden silence about all these surges, movements and have neither supported nor opposed any of the sides vehemently. Even more interestingly elections at various levels were organized within 3-4 months across these GCC countries.

The power in GCC countries is concentrated with very very few members of the royal family and almost anybody who has spent reasonable time in GCC knows this. The Kings and the Queens of these countries have used all their power and money to wield even more power and earn more money for themselves and for their people. All the royal families of GCC nations are popular amongst local nationals, are western educated and reasonably liberal too. So despite their old friendship with the likes of Gaddafi, they were wise enough to judge the changing times. Before their peace loving national could find spare time from shopping in the newly built swanky malls and artificially created islands, elections were declared, candidates were nominated, electoral lists were prepared and elections were organized peacefully and efficiently. While people were busy watching Al Jazeera and CNN to find the truth of what actually happened in Middle East, showcase reforms were conducted in a sweeping manner at the speed of light in this mighty oil rich part of Middle East now called as GCC. The local media and newspapers went all Gung-ho about these lip-service elections, but despite all the attempts to create buzz, voter turn out remained low (20%-40%). The voter list was prepared a bit arbitrarily though and not all the members of the family were allowed to vote. To impress the west and the rest, some women candidates were made to contest elections, but not many women were allowed to vote. The low voter turnout indicates the interest, perhaps necessity and efficacy of such elections.

In the increasingly connected world, the information is already being democratized at a much rapid rate and the consequences have been beyond what anybody could have ever imagined. The otherwise orderly GCC nations witnessed for the first time the chaos which was accompanied by movements/uprisings/struggle for freedom and democracy. At present the GCC nationals does not seems to be too much bothered about the idea of democracy. The generous government spending will ensure a high disposable income in the smaller of the GCC nations. However the not so oil rich and not so small nations are already facing the heat of dissent and public anger. The seemingly never ending supply of the Black Gold and its near all time high prices will ensure a constant source of revenue and hence prosperity for these nations. But for how long and how far, is the question which nobody wants to face right now. When all the developed socio-economic-cultural powerhouses of the world are busy in saving their today, these GCC nations can very easily afford to forget the distant future, which is very very difficult to predict in any case.

Tunisia and microscopically speaking the recession which was born and bred in the Wall Streets of the first world has catalyzed the process of democratic transformation in the second world but surprisingly most of the third world seems to be reasonably insulated. GCC nations have white washed their countries, the other Middle Eastern nations are celebrating their success, are busy pondering about their respective futures. Because of the autocratic regimes which lasted for decades, a political and leadership vacuum got created without anybody noticing it. So the new generation revolutionaries who knows how to Tweet on Facebook and fire AK 47 are digging mud to bury their past and fill up the vacuum.

The bizarre world we live in is getting more wired and weird every day. We are back to where we started this post, Full Circle as they call it. The snapshots are the same but the faces on both sides of the table are bit different this time. The flashy, egocentric, tyrants are being replaced by the suave, educated, liberal, capitalists, who are interested only in minding their own business. Infact they too would have never imagined, that such a day would come within their lifetime. As of now, they seems to be committing the same mistake which their counterparts from the Middle East committed, denial! Before they will realize things can become more ugly and violent.Will it end the same way?

 .Chaos the only Order.

Conquering the Qatar Visa woes !!

Well this post is kind of putting down my experiences of getting in and out of Qatar and getting in UAE, legally of course :)

This post would be most useful if you are from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Srilanka, Phillipines. Being India, I can describe the procedures I had to follow back in India, but it is safe to assume almost anybody from any of the above mentioned countries will have to undergo similar processes and similar hardships.

Visa Processes - fairly easy, if you got an offer from government/state run companies such as Saudi Aramco, Qatar Petroleum, ADNOC etc. So, in case you are the chosen one, you may neglect the rest of the post. For the lesser mortals, the processes is as under -

1. The Visa - If you are an engineer or professional with more than 5 years of work exp you might be given an 'Employment visa' aka 'Work visa' before you leave from India. However some smaller companies dont play as per the book (in order to save some upfront cost, reduce risk) issue Visit/Business visa and some even issue a Tourist visa. The authorities are fairly aware of these tactics and dont care much. But going by the books you are not allowed to work, if you are on Tourist visa or Visit visa. Unfortunately lot of companies have been exploiting their employees by hiding behind this aspect. E.g Company issues you a tourist or visit visa and makes you work for 1-3 month and then they don't pay you adequate salary or other benefits which they always promised and then they ask you to go back to your country. In such case you cant file a case against them, because legally you are not entitled for a local salary or other benefits if you are on a visit or tourist visa. So be extremely careful of this aspect.

2. Visa Categories - this aspect is slightly weird in Middle East. E.g in Qatar they might issue a visa for technician if you are a Commerce graduate ( non engineer). For MBAs and senior experiences professionals they issue ' Professional' visa in some cases and Technician visa in some other and even 'Engineer visa' if your undergrad was Engineering. In UAE, things are more sane and they offer visa based on designation such as Sales Manager, Project Manager, HR Manager etc but once again they have some unwritten strange rules such as you cant be given HR Manager visa without MBA or you cant get Sales Manager visa without being Engineer/MBA.

3. How does it matter - the Visa categories will matter when you apply for Credit card, bank loan for car or housing or personal loans. Things get murky if you are planning to go from one GCC country to another. E.g if you are on 'Technician visa' in Qatar, you cant get a visa on arrival for UAE, but if you are on 'Engineer visa' in Qatar, you can get a visa on arrival for UAE provided you Qatar visa is valid for at least 6 months from the date of travel to UAE.

4. Visa for family- Similarly you can apply for Visit visa/ residence visa for your family only if your monthly income is above QR.5000/5000 Dhms and you are on a decent visa ( Engineer, Doctor, Manager etc). Family visit/residence visa is not granted at all if you are on Technician, Plumber, Labour, Driver visa. Now a days, in some cases (there's no rule, so depending on the mood the Immigration Officer), the visit visa for Parents can be denied if the age of any of your parents is above 60 years. Its almost impossible to get a family visa for distant relatives such as cousins, niece etc.

5. Document Attestation - You need to attest the original degree (and not a color photo copy) from Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi, followed by Embassy of the country in which you are planning to work in Delhi/Mumbai. In some cases the Immigration officers also insist on getting the Degree further 'stamped' by Ministry of External Affairs (MOEA) in the country in which you are planning to work. Which implies either your employer or some agent has to get this thing done. Usually MOEA attestation is not mandatory, but if you have time and resources get it done. You never want to take chances with Arabic mood swings. The warning here is - if your degree is only in regional language, you need to get it translated in English and get both the original and translation attested.

6. Attestation Requirements for Family -The marriage certificate has to be attested as mentioned in step 5 above. Sometimes. they may insist on the stamp of Indian embassy in the applicants country of residence on both original and translated certificate. Translation once again if it's in regional language.

7. Work Visa Ban - quiet strangely, if you resign from Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi, Oman and some areas of UAE you will be banned form working there for another 6 months to 2 years. For past 5 years the Gulf Cooperation Council has been talking about abolishing these laws, but no developments yet, barring the Free Zones in UAE, i.e. if you work in Free zone, you can smoothly take up a new job anywhere else in UAE without worrying about ban!

8. Communication issues - if your company PRO (btw, PRO is the only person allowed to go to the government offices and apply for work visas on behalf of companies) is not very proactive and updated you can face reasonable delays, unforeseen circumstances especially if you visit the MOI (Ministry of Interior) alone. All the government officials working in MOI are strictly locals and they dont prefer to/want to/knows to communicate in any language other than Arabic (unless you are Westerner/White skin).

Typing Centers - At least in Qatar and UAE all the visa related forms are available only in Arabic. So you need to go to typing centers located in close proximity of MOI office. So if you are not accompanied by your PRO or someone capable of reading/writing Arabic.

For Oil Blocks, NFZ, Democracy & Chaos !!

Thousands of expatriates fled from Libya via air, water or land however possible, some leaving behind their life time of savings, some them could not make it and lost their lives in a foreign land for no fault of theirs, quiet unfortunate !!

Just heard the strategically timed press conference of Libyan Oil minister today afternoon (held within 24 hours of United Nations Security Council implementing the No Fly Zone ( NFZ) over Libya). The Libyan Oil minister in the press conference requests international experts and oil companies, operators etc to come back to work !

Libyan government (in power, i.e Gaddafi's regime) criticizes the NFZ stating that UNSC is not authorized to intervene in the internal matters of a country !

Mummar Gaddafi isn't going to give up anytime soon (defined as next few days !!).

The Libyan oil production has fallen from 1.6 million bpd to around 400k bpd, as confirmed by the minister himself !!

Germany, Russia, China, India and Brazil votes against enforcing NFZ on Libya !!

Libyan Oil minister invited ( 2 times during his 5 minutes speech) companies from China, Russia and India to come o Libya as they will be awarded the Oil blocks without any tendering/ bidding process in a very short duration ! Anybody interested, I bet many ! What about democracy ? When it comes to oil, money doesn't matter, right.

Rebellions in Libya seems to be happy about enforcing the NFZ over Libya while Germany, India, China are worried about the details of how it will be enforced and how can the forces ensure no damages to civilian life and properties. An irony or the need of the hour !!

What happens if Gaddafi sill remains in power for many more years to come, who might benefit the most leaving aside his regime ? On contrary what happens if he looses asap, who might be at loss leaving aside his regime ?

Most importantly what happens ( to the Arab world, to the civil wars in Middle East, to the arms contractors, to the current powerhouses of the world, to the seemingly impossible to collapse multi billion perhaps trillion dollars worth global oil giants, to Yen to USD and to the world's socio-politico-economico environment ) IF someone invents a new way to generate electricity from a renewable, abundant source !!!

So is it about democracy, oil, politics? Though its hard to predict when and comprehend how but I am sure that all of this oil power and politics will go in vain one fine morning, when some scientist, engineer, innovator sitting in a lab in Sweeden or perhaps India will discover an alternate fuel, which is cheap, easy to produce and environment friendly. I hope the world will be much safer, more peaceful and prosperous as well.

But as I said before its not possible to predict the next pattern of chaos and till then everybody will hold on to this current pattern as if it will last forever. Perhaps thats how its meant to be, one at a time !!

Dubai World & the Economy of ME !!

Over the last weekend when world was celebrating the Thanks Giving holidays and Eid, one of the largest company of Dubai, Dubai World announced its inability to repay its debt to the tune of $30 billion. The report came as a surprise to many and almost everybody in the world expressed their opinion about it, primarily of concern and grief, but almost everybody seemed in the denial mode, rejecting any repurcussions on their own country's economy what so ever !! The question which surfaced in my mind was - Is it the beginning or is it over ?

Being part of this ecosystem for past 6 months, I always thought it was right there looming in front of everybody, but the reactions I read took me by a surprise infact! I always believed in simple mathematics and the power and sophistication it provides in carrying out most fundamental analysis. Within one week of landing in Qatar ( May 2009 for lesser informed), I had the opportunity to take a round trip of the city's most ambitious projects. I was defnitely impressed by the mushrooming of high rise towers and obscure buildings some planned and some in middle of no where !! A quick total of the various new buildings nearing completion/ completed in and around 4 prime routes of Doha, ie B, C & D ring road and Airport road, revealed me that more than 100 commercial buildings will be at Doha disposal in next couple of months. As I explored more into the city, I discovered the new and gliterati West Bay built on the lines of Manhattan, NY or Hongkong Islands ! Doha has one of the longest corniche in the region and at its tip lies the melting point of Middle East meets West the West Bay !! The skyline of West Bay has undergone a sea of change in past 5 years or so. So coming back to mathematics West Bay adds another 50 odd high rise towers and a dozen more hotel buildings. Most of the high rise towers in West Bay are designated for commercial/ office space of hotel purposes.

Now lets analyze the population growth in Qatar. The population of Qatar as per 2004 census was 750,000 and 2009 estimates are 1.4 million. Discussion with friends and old collegues revealed that back in 2004 also almost 50% population was of expats working in various Q companies ( Q - P, Steel, Cement, Fertilizer) and other Oil & Gas related companies ( Shell, Exxon, Schlumburger etc). So for sake of simplicity we can consider 350,000 to be real local population and another 350,000 as expats. Assigning a 5% ( which is almost 4 time that of India and more than any other country in the world) growth rate of local population we arrive at apprx 425,000 as the local population in 2009 which implies expats population to be 1 million. Whoosshh !! So the expat population has increased almost 3 times in 5 years...now thats big and what are these guys doing ?? Construction and related indsutries of course !! The output of basic Q industries has definitely not tripled during this duration and so we can safely conclude that the huge population bust is not sustainable and an abbreation ! So what will happen once the projects will come to a standstill ? Perhaps that's an extreme scenario but considering the increasing number of 'For Rent' hoardings in Qatar these days, something is definitely more than fishy !!

If we analyze the situation in more macro context of entire GCC, the situation will appear ever more scary !! A bird's eye view of the GCC countries like Qatar, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman to certain extent will portray the picture of war like situation !! In several pockets amidst deserts and oil rigs and huge fleet of towers and mega structures is appearing. Fortunately the construction industry does not create any additional problem of air/ water pollution or ozone depletion, hence no visible effects in the air/ water or ambience in general. And hence the massive constrution sites remain unnoticed and slowly people and government start getting used to it. Temporarily these massive construction sites generates enormous economic activity, movement of human beings, of goods and services and all of a sudden ( or gradually depends upon your frame of reference) the population, the GDP, the economic activity, the consumer spending etc starts increasing. So looking at all these indicators in short term, the economist, the governemt starts feeling good about the economy, the HNIs tends to invest more and not so HNIs in their desire to become HNIs overnight, starts borrowing. The banks in this part of the world are largely directly or indirectly governed by the governement/ the Kings and the Queens ( no we are not talking about fairy tales, but the actual real life kings and the queens) !! So if a HNI or not HNI is supported by a clan/ royal family due to whatsoever reason, is able to convince the bank about the economic viability and very high ROI of the project and hence the money flows into the system, infact the system is flooded with money supply. This has been the broad story of the GCC in past 5-6 years. The enormous money supply, lack of transparencey and accountability brings with it the problem of corruption and slowly inefficiencies creeps into the system.

The two basic forces of nature The Fear and The Greed comes decides the way the economy and the market will move in the future. What will happen to the high rise and the megastructures 10 years down the line is the question to ponder about. Perhaps the easy availability of oil money, another oil boom cycle of couple of years will wipe away the losses from the balance sheet of the government and the banks, perhaps some the buildings will be demolished to create some more parks or playing spaces and so the wheel of life will keep on rotating.