Why Women Liberation Can Take Off Only in India !

The instance of misbehavior, heinous crimes against women in India are among the highest in the world, yet there are few things which makes me feel positive.

A lot of confusion is spread on the web and in the minds of educated Indian men and women about the orthodox, way of life which I hope will clear out slowly. Majority of confusions are about Traditions and Religion. Driven by consumerism and desire to make quick buck, gain quick fame or pleasures local traditional or global festivals are getting reduced to occasional superficial lip-service, pompous celebrations. 

While a lot of traditions are good, many are bad, illogical and with passage of time such traditions have bee dying natural death. Traditions are usually regional phenomena which evolved either in response to an external situation such as geography or climate or out of one odd instances. Parda Pratha for example started in northern parts of India to safeguard the women from the eyes of soldiers and fighters from Central Asia who frequently invaded India for over 1000 years. Parda Pratha is not part of any religion of India origin. Similarly traditions such as Sati though abolished and extinct now developed due to one odd incidence. Modern educated Indian women might find traditions of Karva Chauth or Rakhi as discriminating or demeaning but once again these are not propagated by any Religion. In-fact if some time and efforts are made to learn the stories and anecdotes behind each of these rituals everybody can learn precious lessons.

Religion according to me is the biggest influence on the Indian psyche. And I believe that the premise of almost all religions originated from India is fairly neutral to positive towards women. Blind procrastination might be fashionable but not very logical and beneficial thing to do in long run. So careful study and assessment of Indian religion can help in liberating India women, contrary to popular beliefs.

Jijabai played instrumental role in developing political acumen of Shivaji. Kiran Bedi, Sushma Swaraj or Medha Patkar have been playing significant role in active and social politics for quiet some time now. Rani Padamini and Laxmi Bai (Jhansi ke Rani) have done something beyond bravery, backed by their deep political acumen and support from all corners of then totally male dominated society. No where in the world, Women have been politically active since time immoral, except in India. Even now the most powerful and important positions in Indian Politics are up for grabs for the intelligent,  educated, liberal and politically astute Women of India. Ironical the fierce competition is from not so educated segment though, which further reaffirms that the Indian masses are welcoming towards women ready to lead.

GDP of India is under estimated, because the contribution of almost 25% of India population, i.e Housewives working at their own will, out of happiness, compassion and sometimes even forcefully is not properly accounted for. Indian housewives have mastered the art of running a big family with a small budget. Thanks to the housewives, the wastage of food, energy or any resources are minimal and the cost of living is one of the lowest in the world. This peer to peer training has equipped Indian housewives with some of remarkable lessons about balancing budget deficit, arts, handicraft, running business in spare time to managing large family spread all over India. Unfortunately we the Thankless males have never appreciated the enormous, free of cost services which Indian women have been rendering to our society and country for eons. But now with changing times, in the age of information explosion and easing communication, Indian housewives are leveraging lessons learnt while running home to successfully run several Small Medium businesses, home grown businesses escalating right upto the top of the pyramid.

The influx of information has temporarily confused the Indian women and men about the essence of being India. But now, more then men, the Indian women are adapting local traditions and values. They are busy weaving the net which will safeguard the uniqueness of being an Indian women without any hesitation to borrow and adapt ideas from other cultures.

Where lies the need for Change - A bit in the Attitude of the modern, educated women towards rituals, customs and towards the voice of uneducated, home ridden women. A bigger need of the hour is to change, educate the males of this country. Both the sections need to revisit our value systems, understand our identity and appreciate that rapes, oppression, eve-teasing and several such heinous crimes are not attributed to Indian-ness. We have to appreciate that Being India is confusing in itself, so being and remaining an Indian Women is a daunting task which only Indian women have been blessed to undertake. Though its important to improve the Law & Order conditions to ensure the safety and security of girls and women, but if we, the Indian males can change our mindset a little bit, miracles can happen overnight.

The democratic chaos, the religious equality, the traditions and deep rooted family support are some of the critical and unique aspects which will put the Indian women in the driver's seat, in the Years ahead. We will see many more successful Women working cohesively with the entire society to shape the future, which world will look upon to.

Democracy & Capitalism- Its Time to Adapt !

I wrote a post in March last year hoping that 2011 will be remembered as an year of Democracy. Things changed significantly since then. Though nothing concrete has been achieved yet, but we have taken a giant leap in its truest sense. Call it a coincidence, but somehow then I felt that the winds of change which began blowing from the deserts of Middle East can sweep the globe and can potentially bring change, for the good!

Below is the brief excerpt of the article written year ago -

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2011 will be remembered as the year of democratic reforms, reforms by the people, for the people, as it was meant to be. 2011 will also be remembered for the pace at which these reforms/ uprising/ revolutions have materialized. Let us leave the task of categorizing these events as people's reforms/ uprising/ revolution to historians, but what is more important is the fact that Arab nations which were never associated with ( in popular media, stereotypes) a place where free will, free speech prevails can embrace democracy. So whatever was considered impossible, is actually possible !

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As we are venturing into 2012, we feel more optimistic then we were couple of years before. Greed and lust for power and money bred anger and hopelessness. In 2011 we saw a controlled outburst of this anger caused by acute state of hopelessness, which slowly gave us the much needed hope and belief in ourselves ! We saw what  a common man in Syria and India can achieve.

Post World War II, Democracy and Capitalism have stopped evolving and past 2 years have highlighted significant flaws in both the systems. We always thought that these systems are perfect but slowly we ourselves discovered the severe shortcomings in both. What started on Wall Street ended up in ballot boxes of Middle East and soon it will be extended to ballot boxes in US and India.

In past few years, Democracy and Capitalism have learnt a lessons from each other.

We all are aware of the founding principles of Democracy - by the people, of the people and for the people. Easier said, wrote, discussed then executed. Democracy which was supposed to be all inclusive, equally beneficial to all has been grossly misused by a handful of people in almost any country of the world post second World War. Though we are living in a Era of Information, but still we cast our votes, select our rulers, government based on our age old instincts.

The premise of Capitalism lies on maximizing the benefits of the all the stakeholders in proportion of their stakes. Capitalism appreciates merits, pays for hard work. If Democracy (i.e We the People) truly starts appreciating the hard-work, fire the unworthy, identify and reward based on merit and not on birth, color or sex, things can change significantly over next few decades. A lot of problems about governance and corruption which democracy bred, knowingly or unknowingly can be solved if Democracy borrows few ideologies from Capitalism.

Capitalism though promotes merit, has remained highly selective and restrictive at times. Lot of people worked hard for generations, but remained poor, lost their voice. Capitalism enthroned 'selected few' on the other end of the spectrum. The 'selected few' grew rich, powerful, untouchable and even mightier than the democratic governments.

The gap between those sitting at Zenith and Nadir in both the systems, Democracy and Capitalism has increased exponentially in past few decades.

ultimately took a nose-dive off from the peak tasting dust. If Capitalism can be more inclusive and participatory, open and accountable as Democracy is, lot of problems of greed, financial crimes and corruption can be solved in a jiffy.

Quiet surprisingly, more than 15% of the people in the world do not seems to care about either. Lets see for how long !!

I am sure in years ahead will be bit more Democratic and a bit less Capitalistic!

Middle East Expatriates In Transition !!

First of all let me confine the scope of current discussion to Gulf Cooperative Council which comprises of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. Recently Jordan and Morroco have shown interests in joining GCC. I think that in few years Libya and Egypt too will join the league and GCC will become a economic powerhouse to reckon with.

Infrastructure and Oil and Gas sectors have created enormous job opportunities in this region, bucking the recessionary trend. Tax free salaries, high rise buildings and massive cranes working day and night and the debt crisis are some of the first few things which comes to mind when we talk about Dubai and Middle East in general. Beyond the glossy buildings, massive oil rigs lies some not widely discussed softer issues unique to this region.

Religious freedom is the widely discussed of the issues. Dubai, the most liberalized of the GCC nations has allowed church and temple but in some of the countries practicing your own religion even in privacy of your home can be an offense. Though there may not be any official record of imparting punishment on account of practicing religion, but several stories, incidents are heard when people were deported or were held in prison  for few days

Some raw facts- Recently Qatar government has increased the salaries only of Qataris working in government run companies by 50%-100%. Even before this move it was widely known fact that for a given post, a citizen will be given a much higher salary (30% to 50% high) as compared to a non citizen across all GCC nations.What amuses and sometimes baffles me is a not so officially discussed fact that Western expatriates are paid more as compared to their South Asian counterparts for the same position ! I agree that a $1000 monthly saving will mean a lot to a South Asian in his country of origin and perhaps it wont be considered something significant for a Westerner but that does not justify the implicit racism. As a consequence some unwritten rules are being followed, such as in a certain area only so and so nationals are allowed to stay, live etc.

The expatriate population in Saudi Arabia is close to 30% (8.4 million), whereas in Qatar 1.45 million expats constitutes 89% of the population. Qatar's population has more than doubled post 2006 Asian Games and is expected to double again in the run up to 2022 FIFA World Cup. The population of Emiratis in UAE is close to 11%, i.e 0.9 million, with 8 million expats. The newly constructed residential and commercial buildings in Dubai or Doha can easily accommodate at least two times of the current total population or at least ten times of the current local population. Owing to enormous profits reaped by consistently high crude prices many projects are being announced and will be undertaken in the decade ahead. So all this implies that the region needs expats to execute those projects, to fill on those buildings and multiplexes, in short to keep the region alive, nothing significant. But interestingly none of the GCC countries offer nationality to any foreign nationals, unless specifically approved by some influential member of the royal family.

So, an expat in Middle East will remain expat for ever ! I really dont know how monarchies of all these GCC nations plan to fill in these buildings, malls, restaurants, airports and seaports. On one hand all the Monarchies of GCC have started emphasizing on democracy so as to avoid any anarchy, on the other Socialism is being bred under the shadow of Capitalism, in the name of protectionism. But not everybody who stands to benefit or loose because of protectionism policies can comprehend the subtle difference between racism, socialism and national interest. On one hand GCC nations wants to liberalize, attract talented expatriates from all over the world, following difference religions including atheists and agnostics, on the other they do not seems to be in any hurry to give complete religious or political or even social freedom to them.

Though many cases of human rights violation have been reported in this part of the world, corrective measures were and are being taken from time to time. Although employer's permission is required to leave Qatar or Kuwait or No Objection Certificate is required to change employers within a country, but any reported labor law violations are treated very seriously here and strict actions are taken against employers. So on a piece of paper human rights, labor rights etc seems to be taken well care of.

Comparatively young, small, oil rich GCC nations have been importing thinkers, philosophers, planners and technicians from all over the world to shape their present and future. Can they live without them in near future? Is it possible to artificially implant technical skills within 2-3 years in the local work force of an entire nation? No doubt the money Asian expatriates makes in GCC as compared to their native country is good. General sense of safety and security and labor laws too are practiced religiously here. While a country is most obliged to fulfill the aspirations of its citizens as first priority, but can they simply choose to ignore the expatriates on softer issues such as culture, religion, freedom and politics. Unless the local government addresses these non tangible, human aspects of life, the Expatriates in Middle East will remain in transition.

From Wall Street to Ballot Box in Middle East AND Back !

The innocent looking, mathematics and business wizards, who were slogged in for 12 hours a day 5 days a week and partied for 24 hours on the weekends, who stood on their feet high, self made, a bit greedy at times for all the right reasons mostly never would have imagined how their shorting of all the traded asset classes, will affect the life of people sitting 5000 miles away in the middle of a desert.

At macro level when I think I am surprised to discover that by first half of 20th century imperialistic powers were thrown out and democracy was established in several third world countries, but many second world countries were and are still controlled by their own home grown imperialistic regimes who have allowed a selective or should I say restrictive freedom !

Interestingly the recent upsurges which swindled the thrones of hitherto venerated and often celebrated flamboyant, reasonably autocratic rulers such as Qaddafi, Mubarak and Ben Ali, have not impacted the GCC countries, despite their close political, cultural and religious ties. Instead the GCC countries have maintained the precious golden silence about all these surges, movements and have neither supported nor opposed any of the sides vehemently. Even more interestingly elections at various levels were organized within 3-4 months across these GCC countries.

The power in GCC countries is concentrated with very very few members of the royal family and almost anybody who has spent reasonable time in GCC knows this. The Kings and the Queens of these countries have used all their power and money to wield even more power and earn more money for themselves and for their people. All the royal families of GCC nations are popular amongst local nationals, are western educated and reasonably liberal too. So despite their old friendship with the likes of Gaddafi, they were wise enough to judge the changing times. Before their peace loving national could find spare time from shopping in the newly built swanky malls and artificially created islands, elections were declared, candidates were nominated, electoral lists were prepared and elections were organized peacefully and efficiently. While people were busy watching Al Jazeera and CNN to find the truth of what actually happened in Middle East, showcase reforms were conducted in a sweeping manner at the speed of light in this mighty oil rich part of Middle East now called as GCC. The local media and newspapers went all Gung-ho about these lip-service elections, but despite all the attempts to create buzz, voter turn out remained low (20%-40%). The voter list was prepared a bit arbitrarily though and not all the members of the family were allowed to vote. To impress the west and the rest, some women candidates were made to contest elections, but not many women were allowed to vote. The low voter turnout indicates the interest, perhaps necessity and efficacy of such elections.

In the increasingly connected world, the information is already being democratized at a much rapid rate and the consequences have been beyond what anybody could have ever imagined. The otherwise orderly GCC nations witnessed for the first time the chaos which was accompanied by movements/uprisings/struggle for freedom and democracy. At present the GCC nationals does not seems to be too much bothered about the idea of democracy. The generous government spending will ensure a high disposable income in the smaller of the GCC nations. However the not so oil rich and not so small nations are already facing the heat of dissent and public anger. The seemingly never ending supply of the Black Gold and its near all time high prices will ensure a constant source of revenue and hence prosperity for these nations. But for how long and how far, is the question which nobody wants to face right now. When all the developed socio-economic-cultural powerhouses of the world are busy in saving their today, these GCC nations can very easily afford to forget the distant future, which is very very difficult to predict in any case.

Tunisia and microscopically speaking the recession which was born and bred in the Wall Streets of the first world has catalyzed the process of democratic transformation in the second world but surprisingly most of the third world seems to be reasonably insulated. GCC nations have white washed their countries, the other Middle Eastern nations are celebrating their success, are busy pondering about their respective futures. Because of the autocratic regimes which lasted for decades, a political and leadership vacuum got created without anybody noticing it. So the new generation revolutionaries who knows how to Tweet on Facebook and fire AK 47 are digging mud to bury their past and fill up the vacuum.

The bizarre world we live in is getting more wired and weird every day. We are back to where we started this post, Full Circle as they call it. The snapshots are the same but the faces on both sides of the table are bit different this time. The flashy, egocentric, tyrants are being replaced by the suave, educated, liberal, capitalists, who are interested only in minding their own business. Infact they too would have never imagined, that such a day would come within their lifetime. As of now, they seems to be committing the same mistake which their counterparts from the Middle East committed, denial! Before they will realize things can become more ugly and violent.Will it end the same way?

 .Chaos the only Order.

The Economics of Corruption !!

Let us try to understand the dynamics of the market of Corruption. Why I chose economics over psychology or sociology or the politics because I think Like all other markets, Corruption involves transaction between two person, two parties, two agencies, the Buyer and the Seller! Let us try to examine the situation from the perspective of both the sides, so as to understand the Economics of corruption.

First of all, we must appreciate that Corruption is not confined to government officers and politicians only. We are not concerned about the scale of corruption, but corruption per say is not restricted to any segment or section of society.With this unbiased view, let us try to define the Buyers & Sellers for the sake of clarity.

The Buyers - we the people who seek goods and services from government and private individuals, agencies, corporations.

The Sellers - AGAIN, we the people who sell goods and services while working in private and government agencies, corporations, departments etc.

The Buyers Expectations

Pretty simple, to get things done (obtain goods or use services) as early as possible at the lowest possible price.

Let us break this seemingly simple sentence down into 3 parts and elaborate upon each part -

B.1) To get things done (obtain goods or use services)-

A. Things which can be easily transacted without breaking existing laws of the land. E.g. A 'normal' Postage stamp, PAN card, Bus ticket

B. Things which cant be transacted without breaking existing laws. E.g Narcotic drugs

C. Things which are still not covered/adequately under any existing laws/rules. E.g famous 2G, Land, Mines etc.

The bottom line is everybody wants to get things done. Some have time and patience hence they do it themselves, some dont, so they pay Agents. Few genuinely don't know the Things they want falls under which category (A,B,C), while few others intentionally play around with the ambiguity. So,it is important to have clear cut laws so as to avoid any interpretation related confusions, remove the 'Things' form category C asap.

By Simplifying The Procedures, the buyers/people will be motivated to remain in category A. By drastically Improving the Supply of fundamental 'Things' such as Water, Health-care, Education, Sanitation, micro- Loans/financing, Corruption can be reduced drastically. The problem is Government make the people believe that the cost associated with improving the Supply is very high, without telling them about the cumulative Losses and opportunity cost.

E.g the cost of Mumbai rains - cost of repairing/ renewing the damaged roads-sewerage vis-a-vis the cost of manhours/days lost, lives lost, damage to public and private properties etc.

B.2) As early as possible-

A. Time is a constraint for Buyer and he will loose, if things are not expedited ( and happen within 'stipulated time frame'). So, he tends to pay the bribe for expedition. In some cases, this Bribe can be Legalized as 'Expedition Fee', such as 'Tatkal' railway tickets, Speed Post, Tatkal Passport etc.

B. Time is a constraint for Buyer but he will loose only if things don't happen within 'stipulated time frame'. E.g - Pension, Gas/Electricity connection, Availability of subsidized urea/seeds, Ration cards, Hearing in the courts. Most of these are essential services and the Seller/Service providers know this fact and intentionally/unintentionally try to delay things. So care must be taken to identify and segregate the intentional and unintentional delays.

C. Time is not a constraint for Buyer. E.g- small IT refunds, voter ID card

So, it is important to define the 'Stipulated time', clearly. Private sector is used to providing goods and services in a time bound manner, so its high time that public sector learns this trait too.

Usually the Time Constraint can be reduced by using Internet Technology ( thus avoiding any chances of discretionary powers to decide who came first in the que). However poor internet penetration is still an issue, which can be and is being resolved though unknowingly by the private sector in an unplanned way.

B.3) At the lowest possible price -

A. By paying the 'stipulated price',the buyer is benefiting. E.g Train ticket.

B. The Buyer cant pay the 'stipulated price', i.e he will run into losses, if he does. E.g Poor migrated taxi driver, mixing Kerosene with Petrol, Hawker selling goods on road side

C. The Buyer can pay the 'stipulated price', but he wants to maximize his profits. E.g. Traffic rule violation fine, late fee etc.

So, the Buyer should have incentive to remain in category A above, however there will always be people in category C. This can be tackled in two drastically different manners, one by reducing the stipulated price, so that the incentives for paying bribe reduces such as low cost postal stamps, bus or general class train tickets. AND by increasing the stipulated price, so that the instances of violation, deviations reduces in individual's self interest, e.g high fine for traffic violation, high penalties for small instances of crime.

Cases in category C needs to be looked into more holistic manner with a reasonable Socialistic approach. Such as reducing the migration to cities by creating better life and employment opportunities in towns and villages, thus reducing the no. of unemployed, frustrated, misguided individuals in towns and cities and thus reducing crimes and associated corruption. By rehabilitating ALL street hawkers, road side sellers to a permanent market place, many direct and indirect crimes and associated corruption will reduce drastically. Easier said then done, but unfortunately there are no short cuts to this.

The Sellers Offerings

S.1.) The Exclusivity (in Public Sector) - the Seller knows that he has exclusive rights to sell some/all goods and services in that particular area. E.g Ration shop, Water Supply department etc.

The UID project will reduce exclusivity and hence will force Seller to behave professionally, thus reducing

corruption significantly. Providing more and more services online will also reduce the human intervention

and the human discretion, thus reducing opportunities to indulge in corrupt practices.

S.2) Competitive Scenario - if the Seller knows that the Buyer has a choice, he will try to maximize his Sale Price, which convinces Buyer to Buy the Goods and Services from him and not from his competitors. E.g Private Banks, Road and Airport operators have improved the quality of the infrastructure and quality of services offered.

Scenarios applicable in both S.1 and S.2 situation-

A) The Seller can provide goods and services easily, meeting ALL the expectations of Buyers.

B) The Seller is undergoing constraints (financial, time, resource) and hence wont be able meet expectations of ALL the Buyers. Hence will use his discretionary powers on which Buyers to Serve.

Under such situation, there's no option but to improve the Supply, either temporarily or permanently, else will lead to massive black marketing, hoarding. Such a situation arises due to poor anticipation (intentional or unintentional) of demand.

C) The Seller ( organization and/or individuals) feel that they don't get (salary, incentives, appreciation) what they deserve as compared to comparable others ( friends, colleagues, relatives) in private sector. So hence to meet expectations of their families, they compensate for by indulging in corrupt practices.

This is one of the un-addressed issues. While MPs have increased their salaries significantly by passing the laws, but the wages/salaries of those working at very basic level/entry to middle level in Police, Municipal corporation, Police, Water, Electricity dept has not changed much in past decade. Attracting and retaining talented people and keeping them motivated in Public Sector, is a much neglected aspect and a lot needs to be done about this.

In addition to remuneration, Recognition and Appreciation for good work is also critical. Somehow I don't like the idea of categorizing bureaucrats and elected representatives as Public Servants and thus expecting each and every one of them solely as social workers with no personal plans, vested interests etc. 100 years ago, this terminology was acceptable, but now Millions of people are working in public sector to earn their livelihood, out of personal interests, as a full time job and hence they are allowed to serve the interest of their families in the best possible manner like any Private Sector Servant !!

D) The Seller is not Accountable for Results, Performance (organization or individuals), growth or is not held accountable (by Buyer or by higher management), hence he/she is not keen on working too hard OR even working at all.

Lokpal Bills if drafted carefully, will address this issue of accountability and transparency.

In our day to day life, we will encounter situations which will arise due to a combination of The Buyers Expectations and the Sellers Offerings HENCE it's impractical/illogical to assume that one law, one bill, one person, one week, can change EVERYTHING BUT it's also impractical/illogical to assume that one law, one bill, one person, one week cant change ANYTHING !

Recession- Is the World Falling Apart - Part 2 !!

An Unexpected Part 2 !! I hope it does not turns into a trilogy !!

Back in December 2008, I wondered and mused whatever is happening to global economy, but the political and financial leaders are not taking the necessary, bold, corrective steps in time. Unfortunately the world leaders kept on salvaging the old stalwarts of Wall Streets, left, right and centre, perhaps that was the only option left. Unfortunately not many people are punished for committing financial crimes of by over leveraging in a hope to make quick buck and multiply the effect of that quick buck several times.

Low interest rates in developed world for decades and the compulsion of printing T Notes and Bonds and Currency, especially in the United States caused the Public and Private debt to grow into a monster, beyond control of almost anybody!

A temporary blip happened in the market sentiment in later half of 2010 and once again gold, crude, stock prices started going up, baring Real Estate! In ability of EU to create jobs, high spending habits of the people and the government led to massive accumulation of enormous public and private debt, utlimately causing the economies of whole countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal to collapse. Now the fears are that of collapse of Euro, because the comparatively better off economies of Germany and France cant bear the burden of Italy, Spain, Portugal for a very long duration.

If Euro did collapse in coming months, years it will once again ensure the Numero Uno position of USD ( it is even now, but at least Euro had some chance) and another failed attempt (earlier being Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan). What an irony once again ! Couple of years ago OPEC was contemplating of switching from USD to Euro and now we are wondering whether Euro will be dead alive in 2012 !!

An amazing war, conspiracy, symbiotic and parasitic relation is developing between the current and future no.1 country (on the basis of GDP). In order to compensate for reducing wages and unemployment, US still wants cheap Chinese imports of day to day items and perhaps luxury items as well ( habit! dont change overnight), despite what so ever anti-dumping laws, hue and cry in the public ! China's love affair for Exports ensures that it keeps accumulating USD from USA and from several other regions from all over the world. And with surplus USD in their kitty and a possible fall of Euro, they are left with nothing but investing in US bonds every now and then. So by printing more Currency on one hand US is receiving wrath of OPEC and on another of China, but the irony is both (all) of them cant do anything about it!

Sudden demise of Euro can increase the demand of USD and can strengthen the $ thus reassuring China and OPEC! So while fall of Euro will be really unfortunate, it can bring windfall profits to somebody else in seemingly unrelated relation!

So being poor and underdeveloped for decades finally started paying India in unexpected manner! We are resilient to global shocks and crisis, because we have far too many internal problems to solve. Fortunately, we have lots of gold and silver reserves hidden deep inside but in safe custody of our Lazy Gods for centuries!

So to summarize, I would like to repeat and age old adage especially in rural India -' Sab kuch Bhagwan bharose hai' ( Everything depends on the mercy of gods!), finally worked really well for us, in a way which even our Bhagwan would have never imagined thousands of years ago :) !!

Youth. At any cost !

A burning desire to succeed,

Sometimes at any cost!

Against Limited supply,

Of resources and inspiration, and,

Love of family and few friends.

Learnt to learn, grow,

Shine and outshine,

Achieved seemingly impossible,

Earned and remained happy,

Sometimes at any cost!

We are open, liberal,

Perhaps hypercritical.

We do pay our taxes,

Don't litter on much on streets,

Drive our new bikes, and

friend's car occasionally.

In a hurry to reach our destination,

Sometimes at any cost !

Whenever we faltered,

We stood up, sought advice,

Fought, made our own way.

Call centres, IT, Culinary Arts or Fashion,

Yes, no great innovation,

But some of us managed to thrive,

Sometimes at any cost !

We are thankful, indebted for the privilege,

Of being born in free India.

Yes, we know many issues,

Still unresolved.

Yes, be assured will be solved,

Perhaps slowly, but,

At any cost!

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Nitin

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Frankly, I started writing a prose and soon decided to convert it in a poem instead. Writing a poem after a long time, after having written some really long articles in the recent past :)

A Happy Independence Day to all, hope this year will be an year of action, beyond watching old patriotic movies and listening to old songs !

For Oil Blocks, NFZ, Democracy & Chaos !!

Thousands of expatriates fled from Libya via air, water or land however possible, some leaving behind their life time of savings, some them could not make it and lost their lives in a foreign land for no fault of theirs, quiet unfortunate !!

Just heard the strategically timed press conference of Libyan Oil minister today afternoon (held within 24 hours of United Nations Security Council implementing the No Fly Zone ( NFZ) over Libya). The Libyan Oil minister in the press conference requests international experts and oil companies, operators etc to come back to work !

Libyan government (in power, i.e Gaddafi's regime) criticizes the NFZ stating that UNSC is not authorized to intervene in the internal matters of a country !

Mummar Gaddafi isn't going to give up anytime soon (defined as next few days !!).

The Libyan oil production has fallen from 1.6 million bpd to around 400k bpd, as confirmed by the minister himself !!

Germany, Russia, China, India and Brazil votes against enforcing NFZ on Libya !!

Libyan Oil minister invited ( 2 times during his 5 minutes speech) companies from China, Russia and India to come o Libya as they will be awarded the Oil blocks without any tendering/ bidding process in a very short duration ! Anybody interested, I bet many ! What about democracy ? When it comes to oil, money doesn't matter, right.

Rebellions in Libya seems to be happy about enforcing the NFZ over Libya while Germany, India, China are worried about the details of how it will be enforced and how can the forces ensure no damages to civilian life and properties. An irony or the need of the hour !!

What happens if Gaddafi sill remains in power for many more years to come, who might benefit the most leaving aside his regime ? On contrary what happens if he looses asap, who might be at loss leaving aside his regime ?

Most importantly what happens ( to the Arab world, to the civil wars in Middle East, to the arms contractors, to the current powerhouses of the world, to the seemingly impossible to collapse multi billion perhaps trillion dollars worth global oil giants, to Yen to USD and to the world's socio-politico-economico environment ) IF someone invents a new way to generate electricity from a renewable, abundant source !!!

So is it about democracy, oil, politics? Though its hard to predict when and comprehend how but I am sure that all of this oil power and politics will go in vain one fine morning, when some scientist, engineer, innovator sitting in a lab in Sweeden or perhaps India will discover an alternate fuel, which is cheap, easy to produce and environment friendly. I hope the world will be much safer, more peaceful and prosperous as well.

But as I said before its not possible to predict the next pattern of chaos and till then everybody will hold on to this current pattern as if it will last forever. Perhaps thats how its meant to be, one at a time !!

Chaos - The Only Order ?

Growing up is never easy, especially when everything else in the world is growing with you in quantity, quality and in almost every possible dimension. Lets take look at some statistics -

Estimated Number of registered websites in the world-
1998- 2.4 million
2000- 7 million
2010-180 million

Question - did anyone in the year 1998/99/2000 imagined that the number of registered websites will increase 25 times over next decade ?
Question 2-any guesses for the number of registered websites by 2020? 500 million or 5 billion?

Estimated World Population-
1000- 0.25 billion
1500 - 0.50 billion
1810- 1 billion
1910 - 1.8 billion
1965-3.6 billion
2000 - 6.1 billion
2010-6.9 billion
2020 - projected - 8 billion

Question - did anyone in the year 1000 AD imagined that the world population will shoot up 25 times in next 1000 years ?
Question 2 - any guesses for the population in 3010-150 billion? OR back to 0.25 billion?

Estimated Mobile users in the world -
2000- 0.5 billion
2005- 2.1 billion
2010 - 5 billion

Question- did anyone in the year 2000 forecast a 10 fold increase in next 10 years?
Question 2 - projections for 2020? definitely not 40 or even 20 billion right !!

Year 1910 - did Britishers ever imagined that 100 years fast forward and Indian and Chinese economies will be ruling the world, despite of them looting the world for 300 years !!

Will United Nations/US/UK government will ever succeed in reducing the Chaos/Entropy of this World, i.e reducing the poverty, wars, coup, terrorism etc?

These might be sample and apparently random statistics over a completely diverse time frame and on similar lines we can analyze the number of TV sets from 1900 to 1930 to 1950 to 2000 and many more interesting statistics. But the question remains - is it possible to predict any trend over a 'long time frame' in future for almost anything/event/behaviour!

Perhaps not! Why? Simply because the human mind does not have the ability to comprehend the outcomes of billions and billions of macro and micro events taking place everyday, everywhere, everytime ! No matter how smart we become in foreseeable future, we wont be able to run aMonte Carlo simulation for the whole world in our head to predict the outcomes of random events.

With world becoming more complex then ever, with the advent of internet and social media, the possibilities of interactions and so the total volume of interactions has grown out of proportion in the past decade. So, the definition of 'long time frame' itself has reduced and most analysts are caught on the wrong side, in their attempt to predict the stock price over next 6-12 months!!

So, is Chaos the only order? With increasing population and more rapidly increasing 'things' (mobile, internet!!) around human beings, the number of interactions between man-man, man-thing, thing-thing are bound to increase in leaps and bounces which will further increase even more random events in almost any field - science, technology, politics over next 10 years !! So perhaps the next decade be most eventful decade in past 20000 years? I think so, provided some comet/s (force majeure as they call in business :)) etc does not happen to our dear planet!

What about Religion? Almost 80% of the world population firmly believes in some religion or the other, still the number of people attaining salvation/ moksha, which tend to reduce the Chaos/ Entropy of the world have not succeeded either? But what if no religion ever came into existence, perhaps we would still be in jungles! So religions have definitely succeeded in temporarily reducing the randomness, aberrations in the society at large.

We can find the most interesting application of Chaos Theory in - Politics!! Politicians know that its impossible to predict the behaviour of voters after 4/5 years, i.e during next elections. So, they start their hidden and public campaign to woo voters just few months/ weeks before the elections!! Perhaps we need to establish a new branch of studies - Thermodynamics of Politics and Religion!!

But the next question is to all "Thermodynamicists" (please don't mind the extension of Science- Scientists association, if you prefer Mathematics - Mathematician kind of usage then I can rewrite "it" as Thermodynamicians but it does sound weired, right!), so coming back to question outside the brackets of terminology, Can the Entropy and so Chaos of our System will keep on increasing forever from here on or will the end be same as the beginning- A Big Blast?

Chaos - The only order, from ever since, forever !

Saving for the future

The age old habit of saving, the Indian way is paying off well in the current economic scenario. While consumption drives the growth, GDP, it also drives the tendency to consume even more and then we tend to cross any limits. Shopping is a good exercise now a days to home ridden women, but long hours spent in malls can harm both health and wealth. Saving is good especially when its about saving water, electricity, petrol, enviornment our precious flora and fauna here are some of my few cents on this -

Water
1. water is precious, so we have to make conscious efforts to save water
2. using a shower instead of traditional buckt full water might save some water - good for health and more refreshing too
3. dont let the tap running while shaving, burshing, bathing, washing clothes/ dishes
4. Dont do unnecessary washing of balconies/ floor/ porch/ roof everday be mindful about it

Electricity
1. I think here also conscious efforts to switch off all the buttons the moment we are out of room
2. using CFLs as much as possible - a high initial cost but savings for lifetime
3. using technology especially in malls/ big shops to optimize the consumption of electricity ( AC/ hoardings)- software + hardware solutions are already available in the market good ROI
4. keeping windows open in the morning (thus avoiding the use of bulbs/ tubelights in the first part of the day) - fresh air and sunlight will pep up the mood and good for health

Petrol
1. Walk to the neighbourhood gorcery store/ ATM - this will improve ur health
2. Turnoff ur engine at major traffic signals/ railway crossings/ traffic jams - this will hopefully reduce the ambient temperature/ pollution
3. Sharing the ride to office/ market with friends and colleagues- this will give good opportunity to catch up with friends in ever becoming hectic life...
4. Encourage children....teens to use bicycles/ walking/ running/ skatingpls share more thoughts on how to increase saving so as to let the precious resources available for our grandchildren and generations ahead

Time
1. I am not sure if Time saving gadgets actually saves time in the end.
2. Technology is a tool, not an end of life. Somehow I wonder how much and energy and money we end up investing in buying new gadgets, devices, online, keeping upbreast with the latest edition of everything, downloading every piece of update for our gadget, is it worth so much of our attention, especially when time is the most limited thing we have. Can we simply afford to waste half of our life, so as to save a quarter of it?

Besides saving will also help put breaks on consuption and consumerism driven world where everybody wants to outbeat the recession which is an output similar consumerism and euphoristic creation of capacity assuming the consumtption and consumerism will increase forever and ever....

Practising some kind of austerity without being ostentatious is something which our religions have been preaching for years....its time to revive these lessons which were preached by Gandhi Ji in 20th century....its time to think before we consume it time to put breaks un mindless capacity creation in everyaspect of life...its time to cherish what we have inherited and its time to think what we can save and nourish for coming generations....

Recession, USD, Crude and Conspiracy Theories !!

Well here my attempt at simplifying things first for my own understanding and then for the understanding of readers :).

When did it began - pretty difficult to say the history of global trade and economics can extend back to centuries, but perhaps if we confine our discussion from great depression of 1930s followed by World War -II and adaptation of Bretton Wood system sometime in 1944. The history of The Great Depression can be easily located here ->http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression. 3 school of thoughts explain it differently -
1) Macroeconomics effect of Money supply & Gold
2) Structural Theories
3) Marxist point of view

1) Post World War 1 era every country in order to protect its exports printed money. Currencies were not inter convertible and were pegged against Gold. High liquidity caused high level of inflation, a stock market crash, a black Tuesday and a recession which turned into Great depression.
2) Keynesian theories attribute depression to lack of government spending which resulted in lower employment, lower income of middle class and great lack of confidence in the system triggered by stock market crash.
3) Marxists call this as accumulation of wealth in pockets (mainly industries), aberrations in wealth distribution which couldnt be sustained and hence recession which later turned into depression.

To some extent or the other all the theories are interrelated. Things subsided to varying extent in various parts of the world. Thrust on agriculture, infrastructure created employment and wealth for masses, but all of it was short lived. 1940s saw increased military spending worldwide which eventually culminated in the World War II and change in World order which lasted in 1944-45.

Bretton Wood conference in 1944 laid the founding stone of International Monetary Fund (IMF), USD become the new world order, USA was given the responsibility to hold the price of gold and marked the beginning of cold war between USA & former USSR which lasted till 1989.

However US couldnt hold the responsibility too long. Rise of Japan, growth of international currency markets, weak USD ($) AND once again led by increased military spending on Vietnam War made USA to shrug off the responsibility eventually in early 1970s.

Lets now fast forward to late 1990s and early 2000s, this time led by emergence of China followed by emergence of BRIC nation once again became threat to US manufacturing superpower. Hi-end manufacturing from automobiles to missiles, arms ammunitions to oil rigs slowly started taking place from South Korea, China, Isarel, India to Brazil. US exports started declining once again simply due to decreased demand of Made in USA goods and services due to availibility of same or better quality goods and services at much lesser the price. However this time around USA used the period from 1970s to 1980s smartly by convincing Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries to sell OIL in USD. Long Iran - Iraq war, fall of USSR further strengthened the US position globally. Gold got replaced or perhaps paralleled by OIL. However the structural change is that ALL the countries in WORLD needs to buy US Dollars ($) to pay for the OIL. With no more Bretton Woods in place printing USD is all USA has to do to buy all that OIL.

This deamnd of USD helped it to remain strong for considerable time. Oil futures literally allowed big US banks, hedge funds to buy oil futures at NYMX worth 1000 $ by having merely 50-60$ in bank account. On the one hand it increased liquidity on the other hand it increase speculation. The inherent problem of decline in manufacturing output, decline in working population, high % of retiring population, unemployment couldnt be suppressed for too long. A low interest rate regime led to increase liquidity and silently created an enemy in the backyard - DEBT. Unfortunately lot of bad things happened parallely - speculators made money as Oil price rose from 40 to 140 USD within 1 year. These speculators lended this money to masses at abysmall interest rates which blowed up the real estate prices. High oil prices fired inflation, which decreased internal consumption and exports were already under pressure and hence triggered the unemployment which in turn triggered loan defaults which in turn triggered bankrupt banks and big financial institutions. Interesting to note is that with the collapse of Lehman & Goldman of the world OIL prices declined even more sharply which further strengthens our assumption that rise in Crude price from 40 to 140 USD was not due to demand supply gap but perhaps due to huge built up in speculative positions which were eventually squared due to bankruptcies casued by famous sub prime crisis.

I think the last paragraph is witnessed by all of us and Rest as they say is History !!!

Heros Requiredd.....!!!

Present debacle of Indian Cricket team..and the Hype and discussions going on since last 1 week or so..shows the urgent necessity of Heros required by and for India !!

Every society,civilisation requires Heors to look upon to !! Those who can do great work, achieve impossibles, gerat artits or thinkers or philosophers with mass appeal !! These Heros can be in various fields, walks of life which are popular at those times - be it science or technology or sports or fashion or music etc etc !!

What is the necessity of Heros ? Why do we need them ?? What if there are none ??

Monotonousity ( i dont know if thts a word or not !!) is mediocrisity !! Both are not exciting things !! Hence in order to come out of this boredom man looks upto somebody whos famous and doing something different, who has OR can achieve more than himself !! He tries to align his actions and aspirations as per Heros instructionss !! These instructions are indirect and subtle but sometimes are very strong !!

Our nation is in the middle of a change - huge change which might be studied by historians of future, business gurus of future as case study !! But in order to move this tide in right direction, we require Leaders - who can guide masses in correct direction ! These leaders need not be from Politics alone ( as unfortunately todays working youth is no more interested in the same ) but Achievers from ALL Walks of life - sports, music, cinema, arts etc. etc !! Our country is desperately seeking for such leaders whom to look upon and mimic !! Following whom people (especially children & youngsters like me :D) can come out of their shelves and try to do something really exciting or constructive or different in life !! Dearth of such leaders has been one of the reasons of recent muslinging on Indian Cricket Team as there are not much options avaiulable ! Nobody cares about the national game anymore !! So this scaricty will lead to over hype of minor sucesses like Ms.Mirza or Yuvraj Singh and likes will create uncecessary pressure on them, which in turn might hamper their performance and their view might be skewed from long term carrer to short term money minting !! thts it !!

Arts and science are still underrated in India ! With arrival of business news channels - fortunately business leaders are getting the attnetion what they always deserved ! Narayan Murthy and Anand Mahindra are becoming household names ! Acquisition by Indian co.s make us, you me everybody feels proud !! Gives us something to talk about, boast about and feel good about !!

Considering our population and its diversity I still feel that there's requirement of hell lotta leaders on various levels from various walks of life so that the nation progresses sustainably and as a whole - together as single entity !!